Phobos-Grunt Re-entry

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david entwistle
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Phobos-Grunt Re-entry

Post by david entwistle »

Re-entry predictions is never an exact science, but I hope the following is roughly correct. I'd welcome corrections and additional information.

The current prediction from Aerospace is that Phobos-Grunt will re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at 15 JAN 2012 @ 19:21 UTC ± 3 hour, with the favoured time corresponding with somewhere over the south Pacific. The margin of error means that Phobos-Grunt could re-enter anywhere along several orbits before, or after this time. This leaves the possibility that the re-entry may occur in a location visible from parts of the UK and during darkness. This doesn't mean that the re-entry will be seen from the UK, only that it may possibly be... Having said that, if you want to look out for this, then the favourable passes, from the UK and Ireland, look to be:
  • 2012 Jan 15 19:46 - 19:50 UT from southern Britain.
    2012 Jan 15 21:10 - 21:25 UT a much more favourable pass with visibility from Ireland, Isle of Man, Wales, large parts of England and southern Scotland.
If you are really keen and there haven't been any reports by 22:00 UT, it may just be worth having a look on the following pass, which will be ninety minutes after the second times given above.

Good luck.
David Entwistle

andyT
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Post by andyT »

Hi David,thanks for the heads up.
Andy
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stella
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Post by stella »

Thanks for your posting David, but I think that it will all be over by the
time we get to your first listed pass, possibly around 18.00 U.T. this
evening.

david entwistle
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Post by david entwistle »

stella wrote:Thanks for your posting David, but I think that it will all be over by the
time we get to your first listed pass, possibly around 18.00 U.T. this
evening.
Hi,

Yes, I see the more recent predictions on Zarya Phobos Grunt re-entry page support a time around then - daylight, South America - Atlantic - North Africa region... I'll probably still venture out, at the time of the UK passes, though - just in case.
David Entwistle

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